Rising Interest Rates AND Increasing Home Prices have occurred together … Time to Buy is NOW

There are some who are calling for a decrease in home prices should mortgage interest rates begin to rise rapidly. Intuitively, this makes sense as the cost of a home is determined by the price of the home, plus the cost of financing that home. If mortgage interest rates increase, fewer people will be able to buy, and logic says prices will fall if demand decreases. However, history shows us that this has not been the case the last four times mortgage interest rates dramatically increased.

Here is a graph showing what actually happened: Last week, in an article titled “Higher Rates Don’t Mean Lower House Prices After All,“ the Wall Street Journal revealed that a recent study by John Burns Real Estate Consulting Inc. found that:

“[P]rices weren’t especially sensitive to rising rates, particularly in the presence of other positive economic factors, such as strong job growth, rising wages and improving consumer confidence.”

Last week’s jobs report was strong and the Conference Board just reported that the Consumer Confidence Index was back to pre-recession levels.

Bottom Line

We will have to wait and see what happens as we move forward, but a decrease in home prices should rates go up is anything but guaranteed.
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Six Collin county cities among best real-estate markets

According to latest WalletHub study, six Collin County cities were named among the best real-estate markets. See rankings below.

Overall Rank	City	Total Score	‘Real-Estate Market’ Rank	‘Affordability & Economic Environment’ Rank
1	Frisco, TX	86.76	1	1
2	McKinney, TX	83.87	2	2
3	Richardson, TX	80.95	3	12
4	Murfreesboro, TN	79.80	4	13
5	Austin, TX	79.75	5	8
6	Allen, TX	79.30	14	4
7	Overland Park, KS	78.32	7	40
8	Thornton, CO	77.61	12	17
9	Plano, TX	77.49	13	18
10	Arvada, CO	77.47	9	43
11	Denver, CO	77.11	6	101
12	Denton, TX	77.01	15	28
13	Greeley, CO	76.99	10	60
14	Nashville, TN	76.78	8	80
15	Lincoln, NE	76.56	16	37
16	Cary, NC	76.09	31	3
17	Carrollton, TX	75.95	17	23
18	Seattle, WA	75.38	11	133
19	Boise, ID	74.28	20	68
20	Irvine, CA	74.18	22	53

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In order to identify the best real-estate markets, WalletHub’s analysts compared 300 cities across two key dimensions, namely “Real-Estate Market” and “Affordability & Economic Environment.”
They evaluated these categories using 16 relevant metrics, which are listed below with their corresponding weights. Each metric was graded on a 100-point scale, with 100 representing the healthiest housing market.

They then calculated overall scores for each city using the weighted average across all metrics, which were then used to construct final ranking.

Original Article from Collin Image
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Mortgage defaults at lowest numbers since January 2007

Equifax Inc. has just released its June 2016National Consumer Credit Trends Report. This monthly report analyzes data from over 220 million consumers in the United States. According to the report, the first mortgage write-off rate is 3.3 basis points (100^ths of a percentage point) of outstanding balances. Meanwhile, the total number of first mortgage defaults in June 2016 was 17,909, the lowest it has been since January 2007.

While the overall US first mortgage write-off rate has returned to historic lows, it remains high in some parts of the country. Puerto Rico, which is dealing with a major debt crisis, has a write-off rate that’s three times higher than the national average (12.9 basis points). Nevada has the second highest write off rate at 6.6 basis points, which is twice as high as the national average.

Other states that have high write-off rates include Florida (6.2), New Jersey (6.2), Delaware (5.1), and Mississippi (5.0).

“The backlog of foreclosures from the financial crisis finally appears to be waning and write-offs are returning to historically-normal levels,” said Amy Crews Cutts, senior vice president and chief economist at Equifax. “Rising home values have helped significantly, as have improving labor markets. Given the low inventory of homes for sale and the overall improving credit profile of the US consumer, we expect home sales to maintain the upward trend we’ve seen in the first half of the year and for mortgage default performance to continue its downward path.”

As for first mortgages, the severe delinquency rate was 1.40% in June 2016, down from 2.07% in June 2015.
Meanwhile, as of June 2016, the total number of first mortgages outstanding was 49.8 million—a 0.7% increase from June 2015. Lastly, the total balances outstanding on first mortgages was $8.33 trillion as of June 2016, a year-over-year increase of 2.8%.

Original Article Link

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First-time buyers boost existing home sales

First-time buyers boost existing home sales
Existing home sales gained 1.1 per cent in June and the proportion of first-time buyers also increased from the previous month.

Data from the National Association of Realtors shows a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million home sales, up from a downwardly-revised 5.51 million in May. Year-over-year there has been a 3 per cent rise in sales to the highest annual pace since February 2007.

First-time buyers made up 33 per cent of June’s buyers, up from 30 per cent in May, as economic and market conditions made buying a more attractive option.

“The modest bump in June sales to first-time buyers can be attributed to mortgage rates near all-time lows and perhaps a hopeful indication that more affordable, lower-priced homes are beginning to make their way onto the market,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “The odds of closing on a home are definitely higher right now for first-time buyers living in metro areas with tamer price growth and greater entry-level supply — particularly areas in the Midwest and parts of the South.”

The median price for existing homes was up 4.8 per cent year-over-year to $247,700 while inventory slipped 0.9 per cent to 2.12 million, 5.8 per cent lower than a year earlier.

“Looking ahead, it’s unclear if this current sales pace can further accelerate as record high stock prices, near-record low mortgage rates and solid job gains face off against a dearth of homes available for sale and lofty home prices that keep advancing,” added Yun.

Millennials are concerned about debt levels says FICO
Debt is still a major barrier to homeownership for young Americans with two fifths of US millennials concerned about their debt levels according to a survey by FICO.

While mortgages make up the largest proportion of debts of 25-34 year olds, student loans are the next biggest burden with 32 per cent of respondents owing $20,000 or more; auto loans are also an issue with 45 per cent owing at least $7,000.

“Our research shows that delinquency risk is highest among 25-34 year-olds, who are still developing their financial literacy skills and learning to manage their loans and lifestyle costs. The silver lining for lenders is that millennials aged 24-35 are keenly aware they may need some help. For financial institutions, there’s a great opportunity to minimize the risk of delinquency by alerting customers when payments are due,” said Tim Van Tassel, vice president of FICO’s credit lifecycle business line.

Near-4 per cent rise for home sales in this state
Home sales in Iowa gained 3.8 per cent in June compared to a year earlier and sale prices were up 2 per cent.

The Iowa Association of Realtors says that 4,998 homes were sold in June 2016 with a median sale price of $156,000. Sales were also up 4.6 per cent year-to-date compared to the same period of 2015.

“Home sales and prices across Iowa continue to be consistent with seasonal real estate trends. Regions across the country experience high highs and low lows, but Iowa continues to increase in value and popularity,” stated IAR President Ken Clark.

Buying a home is now easier than it has been in years.

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U.S. home prices up 5.6% in May

U.S. home prices rose 5.6 percent in May from a year earlier as buyers competed for a scarcity of listings.

Prices climbed 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from April, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said in a report Thursday from Washington. The average estimate of 18 economists was for a 0.4 percent gain, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The improving job market and low mortgage rates are fueling competition for housing and driving up values. The inventory of previously owned homes on the market at the end of May fell 5.7 percent from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors.

“Without relief from new construction, housing inventory will likely remain tight, boosting home prices and constraining affordability,” Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan said in a July 19 statement on the outlook for U.S. economic growth.

The FHFA index measures transactions for single-family properties financed with mortgages owned or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It doesn’t provide specific prices. The national median price of an existing single-family home was $241,000 in May, up 4.6 percent from a year earlier, according to the Realtors group.

Original Article

Buying a home is now easier than it has been in years.

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Rents Skyrocket at Highest Rate in almost a Decade

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released by the Labor Department last week. An analysis by Market Watch revealed the cost of rent was 3.8% higher than a year ago for the second straight month in June. That’s the strongest yearly price gain since 2007. This coincides with a report released earlier this month in which AxioMetrics announced that rents are continuing to increase in 2016. The report revealed:

There was a 3.7% increase in effective rents in the second quarter of 2016 as compared to the same period last year.
That the effective rent growth this quarter compared to last quarter was 2.3%.
Annual effective rent growth was positive in 49 of the top 50 markets, based on number of units. Only Houston was negative, at -1.4%, as the fallout from energy-industry job losses and excess construction continues.

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Here is a graph to illustrate the rate of increase over the last several years:

Bottom Line

With rents continuing to rise and mortgage interest rates still at historic lows, meet with a local real estate professional who can help determine if you could turn your monthly rental cost into a home of your own.

Buying a home is now easier than it has been in years.

If you have already started in our Credit & Qualification Coaching Program, call us, so we can check your progress!
The KEYS to your new home are within reach!

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Gold Financial Services, Inc. is a Division of Amcap Mortgage, Ltd. NMLS #129122. Equal Housing Lender

It’s a Seller’s Market: Is it Time to Downsize?

A study by Edelman Berland reveals that 33% of homeowners who are contemplating selling their house in the near future are planning to scale down. Let’s look at a few reasons why this might make sense for many homeowners, as the majority of the country is currently experiencing a seller’s market.

In a recent blog, Dave Ramsey, the financial guru, highlighted the advantages of selling your current house and downsizing into a smaller home that better serves your current needs. Ramsey explains three potential financial advantages to downsizing:

A smaller home means less space, but it also means less time, stress and money spent on upkeep.
Let’s assume you save $500 a month on your mortgage payment. In 30 years, you could have an additional $1-1.6 million in the bank to get you through your golden years.
Use the proceeds from selling your current home to pay cash for a smaller one. Just imagine what you could do with no mortgage holding you down! If you can’t pay cash, aim for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage and put at least 10-20% down on your new home. Apply the $500 you saved from downsizing to your new monthly payment. At 3% interest, you could pay off a $200,000 mortgage in less than 10.5 years, saving almost $16,000 in the process.

Realtor.com also addressed downsizing in a recent article. They suggest that you ask yourself some questions before deciding if downsizing is right for you and your family. Here are two of their questions followed by their answers (in italics) and some additional information that could help.

Q: What kind of lifestyle do I want after I downsize?

A: “For some folks, it’s a matter of living a simpler life focused on family. Some might want to cross off travel destinations on their bucket lists. Some might want a low-maintenance community with high-end upgrades and social events. Decide what you want to achieve from your move first, and you’ll be able to better narrow down your housing options.”

Comments: Many homeowners are taking the profit from the sale of their current home and splitting it in order to put down payments on a smaller home in their current location, as well as a vacation/retirement home where they plan to live when they retire. This allows them to lock in the home price and mortgage interest rate at today’s values. This makes sense financially as both home prices and interest rates are projected to rise.

Q: Have I built up enough equity in my current home to make a profit?

A: “For most homeowners, the answer is yes. This is if they’ve held on to their properties long enough to have positive equity that will be sizable enough to put a large down payment on their next home.”

Comments: A study by Fannie Mae revealed that only 37% of Americans believe that they have significant equity (> 20%) in their current home. In actuality, CoreLogic’s latest Equity Report revealed that 72.6% have greater than 20% equity. That equity could enable you to build the life you’ve always dreamt about.

Bottom Line

If you are debating downsizing your home and want to evaluate the options you currently have, meet with a real estate professional in your area who can help guide you through the process.

Buying a home is now easier than it has been in years.

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Freddie Mac says 2016 Will Be the Best Year in a Decade for Real Estate

A few weeks ago, Jonathan Smoke, the Chief Economist at realtor.com, exclaimed: “All indicators point to this spring being the busiest since 2006.” Now, Freddie Mac has doubled down on that claim and is saying that 2016 will be the best year that the real estate industry has seen in a decade. In their March Housing Outlook Report, Freddie Mac explained:

“Despite the challenges facing the housing market, we expect this to be the best year for housing in a decade. Home sales, housing starts, and house prices will reach their highest level since 2006 according to our latest forecast…Challenges remain, with low housing supply and declining affordability being a key concern in many markets, but on balance, the housing markets in the U.S. are poised for the best year since 2006.”

The key indicators that have given Freddie Mac such a positive outlook are:

Low interest rates
A resilient labor market
An increase in household formations
A projected increase in newly constructed homes

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Bottom Line

2016 looks to be shaping up as a great year for residential real estate. Whether you are thinking of buying or selling, now may be the time to sit down with a real estate professional to discuss the new opportunities that are arising.

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Don’t Be Fooled… Homeownership Is A Great Investment!

Some Highlights:

Harvard University’s Joint Center of Housing Studies recently released the top financial & emotional reasons to own a home.
Owning is a good way to build up wealth that can be passed along to your family as it is usually a form of “forced savings.”
You’re paying for a house whether you own or rent, but owning gives you control over your living space.

Buying a home is now easier than it has been in years.

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Government Regulation TRID causes loan production expenses surge to $7,747 per loan

Housingwire – March 17, 2016 – Brena Swanson – Original Article

The net gain on each loan originated by independent mortgage banks and mortgage bank subsidiaries plummeted 60% in the fourth quarter of 2015 due to the implementation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosures rule in October.

Net gains only reached $493 on each loan they originated in the fourth quarter, down from a whopping $1,238 per loan in the third quarter of 2015, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported in its Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report.

“Production profits dropped by over 60% in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to the third quarter,” said Marina Walsh, MBA’s vice president of industry analysis. “With the Know Before You Owe rule going into effect last October 3rd and declining production volume compared to the third quarter of 2015, mortgage bankers saw their total loan production expenses climb to $7,747 per loan, from $7,080 per loan in the third quarter.”

Walsh added, “The fourth quarter marked the second highest level of production expenses per loan since the inception of our report in the third quarter of 2008.”

Total loan production expenses – commissions, compensation, occupancy, equipment, and other production expenses and corporate allocations – surged to $7,747 per loan in the fourth quarter of 2015, jumping from $7,080 in the third quarter of 2015.

Furthermore, personnel expenses averaged $5,131 per loan in the fourth quarter of 2015, up from $4,674 per loan in the third quarter.

However, Walsh said, “The average production volume per company was nearly double the first quarter of 2014, when production expenses reached a study-high of $8,025 per loan. The increase in total production expenses per loan in the fourth quarter of 2015 cannot be explained solely by volume fluctuations.”

Average production volume tumbled to $538 million per company in the fourth quarter of 2015, down from $614 million per company in the third quarter of 2015. To put this in perspective, in the first quarter of 2014 when per-loan production expenses were at a study-high, the average production volume was $274 million per company. Also, since the inception of the Performance Report in the third quarter of 2008, production volume per company has averaged $332 million.

The volume by count per company also fell, averaging 2,265 loans in the fourth quarter of 2015, down from 2,609 loans in the third quarter of 2015.

In comparison, in the first quarter of 2014 when per-loan production expenses were at a study-high, the average volume by count was 1,238 loans per company. Since the inception of the Performance Report in the third quarter of 2008, the quarterly production count has averaged 1,491 loans.

Other key elements that contributed to the making of the net gain number include:

Total production revenue (fee income, secondary marking income and warehouse spread) stayed flat at 362 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2015, compared to the third quarter.

The “net cost to originate” shot up to $6,163 per loan in the fourth quarter of 2015, up from $5,549 in the third quarter.

The “net cost to originate” includes all production operating expenses and commissions, minus all fee income, but excludes secondary marketing gains, capitalized servicing, servicing released premiums, and warehouse interest spread.

Productivity slightly decreased to 2.4 loans originated per production employee per month in the fourth quarter of 2015, down from 2.5 in the third quarter.

Including all business lines, 72% of the firms in the study posted pre-tax net financial profits in the fourth quarter of 2015, down from 86% in the third quarter of 2015.

In addition, the average pre-tax production profit was 22 basis points (bps) in the fourth quarter, compared to an average net production profit of 55 bps in the third quarter of 2015. Since the inception of the Performance Report in the third quarter of 2008, net production income has averaged 53 bps.

The purchase share of total originations, by dollar volume, was 66% in the fourth quarter of 2015, down from 70% in the third quarter of 2015. For the mortgage industry as a whole, MBA estimates the purchase share at 53% in the fourth quarter of 2015. The jumbo share of total first mortgage originations by dollar volume was 9.34% in the fourth quarter compared to 9.09% in the third quarter.

The average loan balance for first mortgages increased to $238,481 in the fourth quarter of 2015, up from $238,246 in the third quarter.

Repeated evidence shows the impact of TRID was real, whether the reports were anecdotal or statistical.

Back in October, Walsh talked to HousingWire on what is the exact cost of compliance on mortgage originations?

To answer the question, the she was able to compare the fourth quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2015 since the quarters share similar volume periods.

The chart shows there is a difference of nearly $1,600 between the two quarters.

Walsh noted that there has to be an explanation behind this although it’s not a cut and dry answer.

Ultimately, Walsh said, “It has become more expensive to be a originator. There has to be a reason. Either you’re processing, underwriting and closing costs are going up or your sales costs are going up.”

Buying a home is now easier than it has been in years.

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Closing FHA / VA & USDA Loans at 580+ in Texas, Oklahoma & Louisiana

885 E. Collins Blvd. Suite 110
Richardson, TX 75081
24/7 Mobile: 214-435-8825
Secure Fax: 866-343-3688
Gold Financial Services, Inc. is a division of Amcap Mortgage, Ltd. NMLS# 129122

Follow @Harrisjscott
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Tag Archives: DFW Real Estate Market Statistics

Rising Interest Rates AND Increasing Home Prices have occurred together … Time to Buy is NOW

Bottom Line

Six Collin county cities among best real-estate markets

Mortgage defaults at lowest numbers since January 2007

First-time buyers boost existing home sales

U.S. home prices up 5.6% in May

Rents Skyrocket at Highest Rate in almost a Decade

Here is a graph to illustrate the rate of increase over the last several years:

Bottom Line

It’s a Seller’s Market: Is it Time to Downsize?

Q: What kind of lifestyle do I want after I downsize?

Q: Have I built up enough equity in my current home to make a profit?

Bottom Line

Freddie Mac says 2016 Will Be the Best Year in a Decade for Real Estate

Bottom Line

Don’t Be Fooled… Homeownership Is A Great Investment!

Some Highlights:

Government Regulation TRID causes loan production expenses surge to $7,747 per loan